My first impulse was to ignore this nonsense filled article. But, there's an object lesson here and well worth pointing out. The subject of the article, ostensibly, is a survey showing "strong support" in the Bay
Area for the high speed train.

About this poll: 800 subjects is a rather limited number to base a state-wide poll on. With data from 7 discreet regions (see below), that means roughly 114 subjects per region, plus or minus. The margin of error does not appear in the article, but ought to be fairly high, like in the neighborhood of 4%. In a state with a population of about 30 million adults, this 800 person poll is, you should pardon the blunt expression, BS.

Also, out of 7 regions, northern California appears to be represented by two, while southern California is represented by five. An explanation would have been helpful.

The poll was conducted by J. Moore Methods, Inc. based in Sacramento. I wonder who paid for it. As the old saying goes, whoever pays the piper gets to pick the tune. Which is to say, these "overwhelming" results underwhelm me. Another saying comes to mind: There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

We read that "Bay Area residents are fed up with bumper-to-bumper traffic." I assume that this means that Bay Area residents are fed up with this bumper-to-bumper traffic IN THE BAY AREA, and therefore not on the way to Los Angeles. How will this train from San Francisco to Los Angeles reduce traffic gridlock on, say, the Bay Bridge, or Highway 101 in Marin, or 580 in the East Bay, or, for that matter, anywhere else in the Bay Area?

"Bay Area residents want state money set aside" the article tells us.
What money exactly would that be, that is available to be set aside?

Why would Mike Aldax mindlessly quote only the promoters of the train (Diridon, Kopp) for his "facts?" Why, I want to know, has Mike Aldax not done his homework? That is unprofessional.

Our highway system is falling apart, says Diridon. So, what shall we do, abandon it? Because of your train, Mr. Diridon, we won't need any highways anymore?

Then Diridon says that the bond measure won't increase our taxes since the money comes from the general fund. And, Mr. Diridon, if I may ask, where does the money from the general fund come from? And, Mr. Diridon, how much money does the general fund have in its coffers? Wait, isn't there a $16 billion deficit in the state at the present time? Well, we could cut school funds even further. Right?

Shame on you Mr. Aldax. Do you not see the pattern of dissembling and distorting; what, if I may say it forcefully, amounts to an outright scam?

Martin Engel

Published Tuesday, April 1, 2008, by the San Francisco Examiner

High-speed rail bond has strong Bay Area support

By Mike Aldax
maldax@...

Bay Area residents fed up with bumper-to-bumper traffic overwhelmingly support shelling out nearly $10 billion in state funds for a 200-mph train connecting the state's major cities, a recent poll indicates.

A statewide survey of 800 registered voters shows that 67 percent of Bay Area residents plan to vote "yes" on a $9.9 billion high-speed rail bond in November, an approval rating higher than any other California region.

Statewide, 58 percent of voters approved of the bond measure, and 61 percent said "yes" in the Los Angeles and San Joaquin areas, the study said.

That Bay Area residents want state money set aside for high-speed trains is little surprise, seeing as recent studies place the region among the worst in the nation for traffic congestion and deteriorating roads, said Rod Diridon Sr., a member of the highspeed  rail board.

"I think [the Bay Area has] the perfect storm of negatives," Diridon
said. "Our highway system, built back in the '50s, '60s and '70s, is now falling apart and our population is growing rapidly. Traditional sources of revenue for transportation maintenance and development is declining."

Diridon added that most Californians don't realize the bond measure would not increase taxes. He said the bonds would derive from the state's general fund.

Lawmakers and transportation officials alike say passing the bond measure is crucial to speeding up the start date for rail construction.

Former state Sen. Quentin Kopp, chairman of the rail board, said a November approval of the bond issue "will enable us to be in construction in 2009."

Kopp called the recent poll "a cherry result" demonstrating increased awareness about the proposed 700-mile, $40 billion rail network that would be built over a 20-year period.

The bond measure has faced obstacles in the past. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has yet to sign on to the measure, twice supported legislation postponing it from going to the ballot.

But that doesn't mean he doesn't support the measure, spokeswoman Sabrina Lockhart said. She said there's no indication at this point that any legislation will be proposed to pull it from the November ballot and added that it's not unusual for Schwarzenegger to reserve an official opinion on a measure so far from the November election.

Rail support

A poll asked 800 voters whether they would vote "yes" or "no" on a $9.9 billion high-speed rail bond planned for the November ballot.

Yes No ?? Region

64% 27% 9% Bay Area
61% 29% 10% Los Angeles
61% 36% 3% San Joaquin Valley
59% 39% 3% Riverside-San Bernardino
55% 38% 7% San Diego
53% 44% 3% Orange County
50% 45% 5% Sacramento Valley
59% 34% 7% Northern California
57% 36% 7% Southern California
58% 35% 7% Statewide

Source: JMM Research

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Martin Engel
1621 Stone Pine Lane
Menlo Park, CA 94025
650:323-1670
martinengel@earthlink.net
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