From: Martin Engel <martinengel_at_(domain_name_was_removed)>
Date: Tue Dec 18 2007 - 13:36:30 PST

There's an article in today's New York Times about building a new coal plant in Texas. I won't reprint the whole article, but here's one paragraph:

"The price [of construction] is up about 50 percent even before ground-breaking partly because the market for steel, concrete and power plant components has "just gone through the roof globally," said James L. Connaughton, the chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality. Much of the reason is construction of hundreds of new conventional coal plants." (New Type of Coal Plant Moves Ahead, Haltingly; Matthew Wald, NYT, 12.18.07)

We don't need to get into the discussion about the shortcomings of coal-fired power plants. Our point here concerns all multi-billion dollar project construction, whether it's nuclear plants, electric generating plants, or high speed trains.

There is, in the planning and the PR literature, always a projected low-ball cost figure. It is always, two, three, four or even five times less than what the actual final "as built" costs are. And, surprisingly, we are always -- always -- surprised.

We're still reading in the newspapers that the high speed train will cost $30 billion, or $40 billion, or even "less than" $50 billion. When will we, and when will the newspapers finally have the courage to say what nonsense that is? Let's put it this way: The emperor isn't wearing any clothes!

Meanwhile, the State of California is in the throes of a major financial calamity with a presently calculated $14 billion dollar short fall. At the same time, the Legislature is pushing for a major health plan that will cost the state, what? $14 billion. Now, do we also want to get a taxpayer borrowed mortgage to build a luxury train
-- the Dysneyland Express -- that goes fast up and down the state?
Remember, the $10 billion bond issue is merely a down payment.

Martin
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Martin Engel
1621 Stone Pine Lane
Menlo Park, CA 94025
650:323-1670
martinengel@earthlink.net

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Received on Tue Dec 18 16:13:45 2007