This is no longer new news, but it's too good not to share with you. (I
sent out a shorter version previously.) Check out these numbers. New
forecast is 117 million riders annually. That's over 320,000 riders per
day. If their revenue is projected at almost $4 billion annually, that
would mean a ticket will cost about 33 dollars. Today, a ticket from
Oakland to Santa Barbara is 50 dollars on a plain old Amtrak train
taking 8 or 9 hours. And this new super speedster is going to be
cheaper? In 2030, 23 years from now? And, don't forget; they are going
to be profitable! Do we look that stupid?

This is the "new" forecast. It's a doubling of ridership and as much as
a quadrupling of revenue. The company that generated these numbers
claims that they are the result of ". . . the inclusion of new factors
in the modeling. . ." On their web-site, the CHSRA likes to call these
numbers "facts."

Welcome to Wonderland, Alice.

Martin
=======================

Published Tuesday, March 6, 2007, by the CHSRA via Business Wire

SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN RIDERSHIP AND TWICE THE REVENUE PROJECTED FOR
CALIFORNIA'S HIGH-SPEED TRAIN NETWORK

A new analysis of the projected ridership and revenue forecasts for
the state's proposed high-speed train system, presented today to the
California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) Board, shows potential
ridership in the range of 86 million to 117 million per year and
annual revenue of between $2.6 billion and $3.9 billion by the year
2030.

Transportation and economic consulting firm Cambridge Systematics
prepared the analysis for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission
(MTC). The revenue projections exceed the previous forecasts in the
CHSRA's 2000 Business Plan of up to 68 million passengers annually
and up to $1.8 billion in annual revenue by 2020.

The new projections represent a 72% -- 104% increase in annual
ridership; and a 110% -- 170% increase in annual revenue.

Some of the reasons for the increases are due to the inclusion of new
factors in the modeling, including: long-distance commuters between
regions; users from every region in the state; increasing costs of
auto and air travel; and inclusion of the link to Orange County.

Board members also viewed a state-of-the-art 3-D computer simulation
video illustrating how high-speed trains will fit into California's
landscape and how the system will be integrated with existing
transportation systems.

The video simulation [BATN: now available on the CHSRA web site],
produced by Newlands & Co., will be used in community and scoping
meetings as a helpful tool for potential riders so that they may
conceptualize the look, feel and impact of the system in their
community. Area-specific computer simulations also will be developed
for the engineering and construction analyses of the high-speed
train's alignment and design.

The proposed high-speed train system will travel at speeds up to
220 mph from San Francisco and Sacramento in the north through the
Central Valley to Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego in the
south.

Contacts
California High-Speed Rail Authority
http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov
Kris Deutschman, 916-444-8801

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Martin Engel
1621 Stone Pine Lane
Menlo Park, CA 94025
650:323-1670
martinengel@earthlink.net
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