The comments below are from a new California High Speed Rail Authority
news release. What does it say? It says that the HSR people, in making
their projected passenger number forecasts, underestimated by
212,500,000 the number of riders annually. WHAT??? (2.5 million times
365 = 912,500,000. Subtract their old estimate of 700 million per
year(?) and that equals 212,500,000.) Actually, that doesn't make any
sense. You can see their new video on
http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/). In this video, they project 100
million passengers per year. (That's 274,000 passengers daily. With
that many passengers, they wouldn't be able to move since the entire
length of track would be filled with railroad cars!) So, what does the
2.5 million per day number actually mean? Oh, and by the way, they say
that the money will just be pouring in, like $3 billion a year. Cool.

The fact is that they bandy these meaningless numbers around in their
desperate attempt to keep our governor from killing their vision of this
bottomless pork-barrel. MTC hired Cambridge Systematics, which came up
with those huge, overblown numbers. Why? If you wanted more business
from the CHRSA or MTC, wouldn't you tell your clients what they wanted
to hear? And, how can you ever validate a forecast/projection anyhow?

Martin
=======================
March 02, 2007 08:44 PM Eastern Time
Millions Projected to Use High-Speed Trains Daily Ridership and Revenue
Forecast Demonstrate

SACRAMENTO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today California High-Speed Rail
Authority (CHSRA) Board members received positive news of potential
ridership with 2.5 million daily trips projected for the electric,
700-mile high-speed train system.

"This means ridership could exceed 100 million in 2030 translating into
revenue projections of approximately $3 billion annually in 2030,"
reports Maren Outwater, principal of Cambridge Systematics.
Cambridge Systematics conducted the tests that were sponsored by the
Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC). The ridership projections
exceed the previous forecast of 700 million riders the CHSRA's 2000
Business Plan due to: inclusion of long-distance commuters in this
model; users from other areas in the state; the rise of auto use; and
increasing costs of auto and air travel.

In addition to the positive forecasts, Board members also viewed a
state-of-the-art 3-D computer simulation video unveiled today
illustrating how high-speed trains will fit into California's landscape
and how the system will be integrated with existing transportation
systems.

The video, produced by Newlands& Co., will be used in community and
scoping meetings as a helpful tool for potential riders so that they may
conceptualize the look, feel and impact of the system in their
community. As well, area-specific computer simulations will be used for
the engineering and construction analyses of the high-speed train's
alignment and design.

The proposed high-speed train system will travel at speeds up to 220 mph
from San Francisco and Sacramento in the north through the Central
Valley to Los Angeles and San Diego.
Contacts
California High-Speed Rail Authority
Kris Deutschman, 916-444-8801
 
======================
Here is quotation from Wikipedia on the subject of high speed trains.
This is exactly right, and it is what we have been writing about for
some time. The fact is that we do not have a ". . .dense network of
city subways and railways connected seamlessly. . ." What we have is
BART,SamTrans and Caltrain not even talking to each other.

One notable fact is that in Europe, Korea, and Japan, dense networks of
city subways and railways connect seamlessly with high speed rail lines.
Despite efforts to create high speed rail in the USA, cities that lack
dense intra-city rail infrastructure will find low ridership for high
speed rail, as it is incompatible with existing automobile
infrastructure. Some systems such as Korea's KTX have been plagued by
low ridership, despite having extensive subway systems in Seoul.

-- 
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Martin Engel
1621 Stone Pine Lane
Menlo Park, CA 94025
650:323-1670
martinengel@earthlink.net
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